Hello and welcome to the Carnival - the best place to get your fix for opinions and analysis of mobile. Once again, MobScure has the great honour of hosting the event in Vancouver, Canada. We have some great treats for you this week!

Carnival’s Post of the Week award goes to Ajit Jaokar, who analyzes the latest news about troubles at TruTap. Ajit lays out the facts about the company and their product, painting a very clear picture of the VC-funded mobile businesses. If Ajit’s numbers are correct, with $14.5 millions raised and 250,000 users, TruTap’s cost-per-acquisition ended up being almost 60$! Head to the article for more insights.

Geoff Ballinger shares a story of success from Scotland. His company, Mobile Acuity, won a prize from the Scottish Software Awards. Seems that the mobile software sector is quite strong there!

Jay Liew writes about several areas of technology to pay attention to, including Mobile Apps, SaaS and cloud-computing. Watch out for more cool articles from this aspiring entrepreneur who “wants to change the world with technology or die trying”. Jay, all the best to you in your pursuit!

Our own Judy Breck shares a must-see video about the future (maybe even the present?) of education, as imagined in the developing world. Does anybody else out there think that communication is really the killer app on mobile, there are simply various modes and mediums for it?

James Cooper of mjelly lists his top 10 predictions for mobile in 2009. One that resonates very strongly is #2: “A number of VC funded mobile startups will fail to get second round funding and will either close down or have to radically re-engineer their cost and revenue models”. Next year might see double digit losses in ranks of mobile startups as the eyeballs/advertising model gets a lot tougher to prove - especially on mobile, where conversion from leads to customers is still tough to track.

Barbara Ballard writes about the problems with desktop analytics packages when it comes to analyzing mobile traffic. Perhaps, combining Google Analytics with Bango/AdMob would work great as strength of both camps can be leveraged - make sure to read Barbara’s informative summary for more.

Tomi Ahonen blogs about Mobile Content in a very informative article. After providing heaps of useful data (care to know what revenue margins on ringtones used to be when they took off?) Tomi concludes that You can make money in mobile. Encouraging!

Folks at Vision Mobile paint the big picture of Open Source in Mobile. There’s definitely a lot of players in the Open Source game - only time will tell how many are winners!

This concludes this week’s run of excellent mobile blogging… See you later!

The results are in, and they are interesting but not unexpected. Mobile phones are a link for people’s use of social media.

Ironically, the day before I did my little survey, another organization released their “worlds biggest survey of mobile social media” with 15,000 responses. You can read more about their work here: http://bit.ly/11TOo. Me, I had almost 180 responses (and it is still open, so take the survey).

This is not a random sample of the population. Nor is it a sample of mobile phone users. This is a sample of people who use social networking software. In fact, you had to be using social networking software to GET the survey, since it was distributed exclusively via blogs, Twitter, and Facebook. Some people could have received it by email, from a friend, but in that case the email is an extension of a social software originating message.

On the other hand, given the very high penetration rate of social software and mobile phones among young people (some estimate these to be almost 90% among 18 to 34 year olds in Canada - see Comscore stats from July 2008), this is quite possibly a good indication of how mobiles are integrated into social software web site use.

Of the people who responded to my survey, 2.2% (4 out of 179) don’t use a mobile phone at all. Of the remaining 175 people, 127, or 71%, use their mobile device for social activities. These social activities break down like this (percentages don’t add up to 100, as people could select multiple items).

20.1% - used the device for conference calls

40.8% sent out group SMS messages

44.7% - received alerts from twitter/facebook etc

56.4% - sent texts to twitter/facebook etc

53.1% - visit social software web sites (wow!)

40.2% - send photos directly (no computer) to twitter/facebook etc

6.7% - send videos directly (no computer) to twitter/facebook etc

40.2% - send photos via computer to twitter/facebook etc

12.8% - send videos via computer

I am quite surprised by how many people (over 50%) visit mobile versions of the social web sites and I am also surprised at how many peple send photos directly (via email, presumably, or an application like ShoZu or Twitterific that allows an iphone to upload directly to the web.

Anyway, thanks to everyone who participated. Here is the latest summary table. If you’re interested in the spreadsheet version, let me know: smith@sfu.ca.

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I have been doing some thinking about mobile (phones) and social software. In a sense it is a “chicken and egg” question - do people use their mobile to enhance their social media experience or does social media enhance their mobile experience? Or is it even sensible to talk about “or” in this context… perhaps it is all one thing?

It is common to introduce the concept of “Metcalfe’s Law” when talking about new media. The way in which an interactive network is so much more valuable than a broadcast network is something we are all familiar with and it is the premise of all (mobile) telephone networks. But the internet has gone far beyond interactivity, and into “group forming.”

Group forming networks, from a simple mailing list to Facebook and Twitter, are drivers of an incredible value proposition, since the connections are not just between individuals but between all of the groups of individuals in that network. The mathematics are staggering and a graphic representation is the typical “hockey stick.” (This is sometimes referred to as “Reed’s Law.”)

For the first few years of mobile we had a focus on interactivity: making calls, sending texts. It was “one to one” communication. Group - many to many - activities (conference call, group texts) were modest - with some exceptions - if for no other reason than cost and complexity. There were almost no broadcast - one to many - options, other than the possible FM radio attachment on some devices.

That has all changed recently. Social networking sites like Facebook and Twitter are tightly integrating themselves with the mobile world. They started with text messages but they have branched out into the mobile web as quickly as browsers, processors, and data plans made it possible. And, interestingly, we’re seeing the first examples of broadcast media making their way onto handsets in the form of streaming video and audio as well as more elaborate “mobile TV” services and devices.

With these developments the mobile has not just colonized the “many to many” (group) media forms but it is also moving into the one to many (broadcast) media. That is interesting in and of itself. What is even more interesting, I think, is the way that the mobile is situated in the junction of these media and makes them even more valuable. For example, the “mass” experience (sporting event, movie, even song or photo) that you can share with your friends via photo, video, or text onto your blog or other Facebook account.

I am doing further research into the role of the mobile as an enhancer or other media forms. I welcome your thoughts and suggestions and I have a short survey that I am doing on the topic: http://websurvey.sfu.ca/survey/28872637. Please take the survey and tell others about it.

As a taste, here are the preliminary results

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A lot of time and money is spent in the Western world while we’re trying to figure out the best way to mobilize the Web. The Desktop Web, that is, the one we’re used to - 1024×768, IE/FF and a more or less powerful computer to power the experience. There are a few ways to do it, but sooner or later we’ll figure it out.

At the very same time, the developing world is embracing the Web on mobile, with millions accessing sites that never had any sort of desktop access mode. This is interesting.

Are those mobile portals going to sit down and try to “desktopize” their view of the Web in the near future? Just like us Westerners are trying to get some traffic by being mobile-compatible, certainly they would like a piece of the attractive desktop Web.

I am specifically curious about Japan, which seems to be pretty heavy on Twitter (a very Western service) while having its own advanced mobile-centric communication apps. Are early adopters, rebels and innovators there embracing the western Web tools?

And hey, if anyone needs a mobile-2-desktop advice, I am the first one in line! Take your streamlined mobile site, add advertising all over the place and increase the amount of irrelevant content tenfold. You’ll fit right in!

We just finished moving this blog to a new host. Updates soon!

The renowned Carnival of the Mobilists has once again honoured MobScure with a “Post of the Week” award for our latest post on SMS versus Web on Mobile. This is a big achievement for Handi - we’re proud to represent Vancouver & Canada and push the boundaries of mobile. Thanks a lot!!! Make sure to head to the Carnival to read some of the world’s best writing about mobile, this week.

SMS is dying a slow death - but don’t worry, not the P2P kind… Rather, interactive SMS services that are supposed to make accessing information easier.

Verizon shot themselves in the foot by imposing extra fees for texting their customers. We’ve been trying hard to make SMS a viable business model earlier in 2007 and let me tell you, the overhead was impossible to bear even then.

Granted, there are established players in the space that will still make money and upcoming startups like Zeep might make it less of a burden for the service provider. However, the whole notion that in the Web era interaction with your customer has a price tag attached to it is flawed.

SMS services will still be around for a few years, because they bring value to a lot of people - as long as someone big foots the bill. A person that used a mobile-optimized web service will never go back to the SMS environment because the experience just can’t be compared. It’s better for the user and it’s better for the service provider. Even the carriers might see their ARPU grow as most people opt for an “all-you-can-eat” approach to data, rather than using a more expensive transaction-based SMS service several times a month.

Finally, here’s proof. Below is a graph representing growth of the Mobile Portal for TransLink we launched recently. This represents 300% growth in one month, that already exceeds 10% of the audience of the extremely popular SMS service. This is in Vancouver, Canada - where mobile access to the Web was an unaffordable luxury just mere 3 months ago.

The One Web is coming to a mobile near you. Get ready!!!

For more blogging about industry matters we recommend checking out this week’s Carnival of Mobilists over at Xellular!

Do you know where YOUR mobile users are?

This is a crucial question for anybody that wants to build applications relevant in the mobile context. Measuring everything is an integral part of this industry and knowing the setting in which the service is invoked is really, really important.

As part of Handi’s collaboration with TransLink, the Vancouver Transit Authority, we analyze the data of the free SMS service that John and I first pioneered while being students at SFU - now offered through #33333. At this point, only static schedules are provided (real-time is on the way).

The results are quite interesting. Check out these two maps - “bird’s eye” view of Vancouver and a zoom-in of the downtown core area. The heat represents the requests for schedule information sent in by SMS - over 16,000 messages daily.

Here are some conclusions that we gathered from this:

1) A great number of requests comes from major intersections where buses stop very often. Using the free information service might create a perception of being able to affect when the next bus comes.

2) Entertainment/business district customers rely on schedule information more so than people in the suburbs.

3) Many of the hot spots correspond to bus shelters with full-size “call to action” posters. Mobile is still at the point where it needs to be heavily promoted for a service to succeed.

Good luck finding YOUR mobile customers!

We talk about context a lot here at MobScure and today we’re outlining some of the first steps for making your web presence more context-aware (and by consequence, more usable on mobiles!). Here we go:

1. Device: present supported capabilities only. In a perfect word, all devices will have sensors, 3G internet and Flash support - but for the next few years it won’t be the case. Hide or disable unusable functionality.
2. Screen resolution: resize images and fonts appropriately. This is important for minimizing the size of the result page and making it more readable.
3. Display modes (”landscape” vs “upright”): provide two modes of interaction. The default behaviour for this kind of perspective switching is zooming on the page contents. A more interesting option is presenting the user with contextual data such as maps, directions, feedback etc.
4. Input modes: pick what’s appropriate. In the long-term, QWERTY keyboards won’t be omnipresent. Gestures, voice and images will become legitimate means of input for at least some applications. Make sure you’re ready by diversifying away from text.
5. Location: adjust default behaviour and augment functionality. Location is available from an increasingly large number of sources - area code for SMS-originated visits, IP through Google Gears and even GPS data through context seeders like PhoneGap. The very least you can do is adjust the language of the site to that of the area the user is from. Ideally, core functionality of your service will use these location cues.
6. Time: know what’s when. The Web is meant to be in-sync with real-life. Make John happy with stars at night and a sunrise in the morning, reflected in design of your web service. Sync information with TV and webcasts that are live, right now. Be a part of the ecosystem.
7. Social context: do it with your friends. Soon OpenSocial and FacebookConnect will make it possible to see what your friends are up to on a lot of different sites - be ready to provide a richer service for your users based on that data.
8. Movement: surfing on the run. Yes, we surf the web on-the go! Sensors can tell the us whether the person is walking, running, in a car, train or plane. Make sure the content is clearly visible and emphasized for reading in a shaking environment.
9. Use Bloom. The open-source platform we started at Handi addresses several of these challenges and we can’t wait for your contributions to the rest!

Ever notice how Twitter shows the application that the tweet was sent from? Early users get lost in the mix of twitterific, twhirl, twitterfeed and others, but eventually the medium gains its message. “Web” indicates that the user is currently near a computer, “twhirl” is associated with expert computer users that have Adobe AIR, “txt” points at the mobile phone and “twinkle” identifies an iPhone with location awareness. We get more out of the tweet, because it’s possible to understand the context of its sending a little better.

This is similar to the string that iPhones and Blackberries attach to the emails sent. “Sent from my iPhone” or “Sent from my BlackBerry” first comes across as an obvious marketing play (which it is) but eventually becomes useful. This short message serves as a status symbol (”I’ve got a top of the line device and I know how to use it”), apology (”Sorry for the short message, I am on the go”), compliment (”You’re important to me, so I am going through some trouble replying on my mobile to reach you as fast as possible”) and a call-to-action (”You can just call me to discuss this further”). Smart!

Here are some guidelines for supplying context indicators in your applications:

1. Show contextual information that presents your users in a favorable light
2. Be consistent in its display (for all users or for none) to gain user trust
3. Don’t be afraid to push the envelope on disclosed information, as long as the user is in full control. Privacy is losing the war to functionality that adds true value (note: Facebook Beacon provided little or no value in return for a significant privacy disclosure. That’s a fail!)

Good luck and stay in context!